Samir Islam
07 Mar
The Iran War: What's going on?

In recent days, a joint operation between Israel and The United States of America has been launched with the designation Operation Epic Fury. Many of us have questions over this sudden invasion of a country that has maintained a high level of sovereignty after the replacement of the Shah of Iran, installed after WW2 due to the first American invasion of the region. For context, it’s important to note that the current invasion is a result of many historical factors that have decided the date and path of action for the coalition between Israel and the USA, such as Iran’s economic and military strength, and the type of warfare that will happen in Iran.To explain, after decades of sanctions and the 12 day war in 2025, Iran was deemed weakened by intelligence services to the extent that military action was seen as a better alternative to diplomacy. And thus the invasion was planned. But what about the politics of the war?
The invasion would be gladly welcomed by arms industries, especially since the abandonment of the war in Afghanistan five years ago, which was a site that allowed money to pour into the arms industry, and for politicians and generals to progress their career, their networks and especially their stocks. The more political/ideological reason for the invasion would be the threat and position that Iran holds, as the entrance to the belly of central Asia and the Caspian Sea, making it the entrance to Russia. The threat element would comprise Iran's missiles and military threat to oil industries, sea transport and other economic factors in the Arabian region, as well as to Israel’s security and their political and territorial goals in the region. There are also concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, though it follows procedures and visits from inspectors. The USA proposed an American financed program rather than an independent Iranian one, a very dubious deal, which Iran rejected. The “threat” of Iranian nuclear missiles has been stated to be imminent for nearly 3 decades according to Israel, though this is likely to be a call of urgency to allow the state of Israel to gain initiative over Iran and start a war. According to some sources in contact with American intelligence, such as former CIA agent John Kiriakou, Israel has threatened the USA with using nuclear weapons against Iran if they do not eliminate deep bases that would hinder a ground invasion. These bases were targeted by B-2 Stealth bombers using bunker buster bombs (the size of a van or even a bus), with American officials claiming it was to destroy Iranian nuclear sites, going so far as to say their nuclear programme was utterly destroyed (contradicting an aim of the Iran Invasion, of removing the Iranian threat of possible nuclear missiles). 
Now, some readers may be unaware that Israel has access to nuclear weapons. The origin of Israel's nuclear program is in the 1950s where a West German shipment of Uranium was sent to be intercepted by American forces in the Mediterranean and sent to Israel to start a nuclear program that has had no inspections since its creation. Many people still hold questions over the events of the invasion to date and with the bombardment of propaganda from many institutions, news outlets and accounts, as well as official government speeches, many readers are unable to truly grasp the situation or know what is true, or distorted beyond recognition. This is akin to the situation of the French citizens during the days of its WW2 occupation, but the confusion this time is not from a lack of communications but the overwhelming amount of communications. To be clear, the first day of the operation did result in the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, but not by chance. This endeavour was possible by months worth of planning and information gathering, the intelligence services of the USA and Israel aiming to decapitate the head of the serpent that is the Iranian administration, and after months of accumulating targets the jackpot was reached. Three meetings of senior military and political officials, including Khamenei were taking place simultaneously and thus they were taken out in air strikes. This operation is reminiscent of the similar plans made to kill Saddam Hussein during the Iraq War, with this success on the first day making it one of the most successful operations of this nature to date. This strike was aimed at making Iran capitulate early, though there are fears of this unleashing the field commanders of Iran making them free to use more aggressive and scorched-earth like tactics. Within days an Iranian warship was sunk by an American submarine, the first submarine launched torpedo kill since WW2. On the morning of the 7th of March, an Iranian carrier designed to launch drones was hit with missiles, and is presumably destroyed. 
On the other hand, Iran has broken the “Iron Dome” of Israel, an air defence system of SAM systems and has recently launched new missiles into Israel. This would be the cluster missile which releases multiple missiles in a mass attack, confusing air defence systems and allowing a few warheads to make it to the ground. Iran has also launched drone attacks into American bases such as the American 7th army base in the region, which had its radar taken out very accurately by Shaheed drones, and has also launched these drones at buildings that Iran claims have held meetings of  American officials and military personnel. There have been minimal American casualties according to the US military, but on the Iranian side thousands have been presumably killed, with the missile attacks decreasing by more than 80% according to the official American reports. There have been civilian casualties with a girls’ school in Iran being hit and about 100 plus students dying or in the process of dying, with more being injured. Pictures have been taken. Some housing in Israel has been hit, with the survivors claiming that the killing of civilians and defenceless people is horrible, and many videos of the damage and missile strikes circulating, on the Israeli side, Iranian side though far less, and the American side with declassified military footage being released. 
What about the future? Our readers may be asking this frequently asked question and though there is much vagueness in the clues of what to come, we can learn from history and strategy to see that taking Iran will be a difficulty for the American military only previously seen in Afghanistan, but with a different situation, as if the Iranian military administration is shattered, there may or may not be a guerrilla war which would undoubtedly cause great losses on both sides. This situation is what the American and Israeli militaries want to avoid at all costs, with Israel trying to encourage Iranian citizens to overthrow the Iranian government and hope for Iran to implode. Not much else can be known about the future and conclusion of the operation apart from sandbox simulations and reports on paper, like with all wars, but there is a considerable difference in intelligence and operations on both sides, disadvantaging Iran. The simulations of the Venezuelan operation tell the tale well, with the oil of Venezuela now possibly used to fuel America and its military in the wake of oil production temporarily tanking in the Gulf region due to damages.


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